Estonia’s intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin believes Russia is facing growing internal pressure, with increasing numbers of people questioning the war in Ukraine and the country’s economic problems deepening.
In his first interview with a British newspaper, Rosin, the director general of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (EFIS), said the Kremlin was facing increasingly difficult choices. While he does not expect a popular uprising against Vladimir Putin in the near future, he warned that any major political change in Russia could happen extremely quickly.
“What he has, at this point, are only bad options,” Rosin said of Putin. Continuing the war risks further military losses, economic problems and internal tensions, while stopping could make the Russian president appear weak.
According to Rosin, Russia’s battlefield losses are now exceeding recruitment, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are putting additional pressure on the economy. He said the budget deficit could reach around 10 trillion rubles, roughly half of Russia’s defence budget.
The economic strain is also contributing to growing dissatisfaction across Russian society. Rosin said opposition to the war was increasing “in all echelons of society”, including among some members of the business and political elite.
However, he does not believe this will necessarily lead to a street revolution.
“More important is what people who have access to money, weapons and information think,” he said, noting that discussions within those circles are increasingly focused on how to end the war rather than achieving total victory.
Rosin pointed to the failed rebellion led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023 as evidence of the potential fragility of the Russian system. The mutiny, during which Wagner forces advanced towards Moscow before turning back, showed how quickly a seemingly stable system could be shaken.
“If something changes in Russia, then it will happen in a very rapid manner and we will all be surprised,” Rosin said. “It will be an overnight thing, if it ever happens.”
Mobilisation remains a possibility
Another major concern is the possibility of a new Russian mobilisation to replenish the country’s military forces.
Rosin said Russian society increasingly expects another mobilisation, with widespread discussion of the possibility inside the country. He estimated that the chances of Putin ordering one next month were roughly even.
The Kremlin has so far avoided another large-scale mobilisation because of the potential political and economic consequences. But continuing heavy losses in Ukraine could increase pressure on Putin to take that step.
No immediate Nato attack expected
Despite growing concerns about a possible Russian attack on Nato, Rosin said Estonia does not currently see an imminent threat of a conventional Russian assault on a Nato member.
He believes Russia understands that Nato’s Article V mutual defence commitment remains credible. A recent visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe was also viewed by Rosin as unlikely to have weakened deterrence.
For the next year or so, Rosin does not expect Russia to launch a conventional military attack against a Nato ally. But he warned that the longer-term picture will depend heavily on how Europe and the United States respond.
Continued military support for Ukraine, higher defence spending and maintaining the US role within Nato would help preserve deterrence, he said. Any weakening of Western resolve could encourage Moscow to reassess its calculations.
Estonia itself spent 3.4 per cent of its GDP on defence last year, according to Nato, and maintains a large trained reserve force despite its population of only around 1.3 million.
Russian sabotage becoming more aggressive
For Estonia’s intelligence service, however, the threat from Russia is already present in Europe through sabotage, cyberattacks and other covert operations.
Rosin argued that the term “hybrid warfare” has become too vague to describe what is happening, saying that Russian activities should instead be understood as sabotage, cyberattacks, information warfare and, in some cases, state-sponsored terrorism.
He said the campaign, which he attributes mainly to Russia’s military intelligence service, the GRU, is becoming increasingly dangerous and is targeting defence and logistics infrastructure linked to European support for Ukraine.
The recent incident involving an explosive drone at Leipzig-Halle airport in Germany was cited as an example. Rosin said such an attack could be considered terrorism because it targeted a civilian facility.
Western intelligence and counter-intelligence agencies have so far managed to disrupt many of these operations, he said. But Estonia remains acutely aware of the risks posed by its proximity to Russia.
For Rosin, the challenge is ultimately about maintaining the country’s security and independence while Russia remains just a short distance from its borders. Estonia’s experience of Soviet occupation has made the country particularly sensitive to the possibility of renewed Russian aggression — and increasingly determined to ensure that it is prepared if Moscow’s calculations change.
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