For most Europeans, earning an average salary is no longer enough to afford a standard family-sized home. A new academic study estimates that around 72% of the continent’s population lives in areas where even a 30-year mortgage would not make a 75-square-metre home affordable.
The findings, published in the open-access Journal of Maps, are based on an analysis of more than 22 million property listings across 31 European countries. Researchers Franziska Sielker and Selim Banabak of the Vienna University of Technology say the figures highlight the growing disconnect between housing costs and household incomes.
The 75-square-metre benchmark roughly corresponds to a typical two-bedroom home. According to the study, the sharp rise in property prices over the past decade has significantly weakened the ability of middle-income households to enter the housing market.
Cities face the greatest pressure
Housing affordability is particularly strained in major urban areas. Around 60% of Europe’s urban population lives in regions where an average salary is insufficient to purchase even a 50-square-metre property using a conventional mortgage.
Across Europe, about 44% of the population lives in areas where buying a home of that size would require spending more than one-third of household income on housing, a level generally regarded as financially unsustainable.
Only about 5% of Europeans live in the most affordable housing markets, where households can purchase larger homes without mortgage costs exceeding that income threshold.
The study also points to significant differences within individual countries. Spain is cited as an example of particularly pronounced regional inequality, with Madrid standing out as a major affordability hotspot. High housing costs also affect coastal areas, where tourism and demand for second homes have pushed prices well beyond local incomes.
Similar pressures linked to tourism and second-home ownership can be found in parts of France, Portugal, Greece and Croatia.
Average incomes may mask a deeper problem
The researchers caution that the situation could actually be worse than the figures suggest.
Their calculations are based on regional average wages, a common approach in housing affordability studies. But average income can be distorted by a relatively small number of high earners, meaning that a large share of residents may earn less than the figure used in the calculations.
The researchers therefore argue that improving household incomes could be just as important as bringing housing prices under control if governments want to make home ownership more accessible.
The study also measures current asking prices rather than the costs faced by households that already own their homes or are currently renting. Its findings are therefore intended to reflect the conditions confronting people who are looking for housing on today’s market.
Renting is becoming harder too
The affordability problem is not limited to home ownership. Using a similar methodology, the researchers found that roughly four in 10 Europeans live in areas where renting a one-bedroom apartment or a 50-square-metre studio would require more than one-third of household income.
This creates a difficult cycle for many households. High rents make it harder to save for a deposit, while high property prices make buying increasingly out of reach. For younger people and migrants in particular, renting is becoming less of a temporary step towards home ownership and more of a long-term necessity.
The relationship between rents and property prices also varies significantly across Europe. In countries such as Germany, France and Austria, an average salary generally allows households to rent a larger home than they could afford to buy.
The pattern is different in parts of southern Europe. In Portugal and Italy, rapidly rising rents mean that households on an average income may be able to purchase a larger property than the one they can afford to rent. Spain shows a similar trend, with Madrid, Mediterranean coastal areas and the islands facing particularly strong pressure.
Tourism, short-term rentals and second-home demand are among the factors contributing to these regional disparities.
Housing crisis spreads beyond major cities
The researchers also found that the affordability problems of major cities increasingly extend into surrounding areas.
As housing costs rise in capitals such as Paris, Berlin and Madrid, demand spills over into neighboring municipalities, driving up property and land prices in areas that previously offered more affordable alternatives.
The study describes these urban areas as affordability hotspots, with rising costs spreading into nearby regions despite the higher incomes often generated around major economic centres.
Rural areas face a different kind of housing shortage. Rather than simply being too expensive, homes for rent are often unavailable altogether.
Around 28% of Europe’s rural population lives in municipalities without a formal rental market, according to the study. In many of these areas, rental properties are either in extremely short supply or are advertised through informal channels rather than the conventional housing market.
The findings point to a broader European housing problem in which high purchase prices, rising rents and limited rental supply are increasingly shutting households out of secure and affordable accommodation.
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