Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is weighing whether to support an amendment introducing open-list preferences in the country’s electoral reform, a move that could put her governing coalition under serious strain and potentially pave the way for early elections.
Meloni has reportedly framed the issue in terms of political consistency. After her initial reaction, she argued that it would be difficult for her party to oppose a measure it had previously supported in the Chamber of Deputies.
Her position, however, appeared more cautious by the evening. Senior officials within Brothers of Italy were seriously considering backing the amendment, despite concerns that doing so could derail the broader electoral reform.
Meloni is expected to consult her coalition partners before making a final decision.
Coalition tensions deepen
The debate has exposed growing divisions within Italy’s right-wing governing coalition.
With Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani abroad, Stefania Craxi has reportedly warned Meloni’s representatives that breaking the coalition agreement could immediately send the electoral reform into a dead end.
The League is also struggling to present a unified position. Some members of the parliamentary group have reportedly been difficult for party leader Matteo Salvini to reach, making the party’s eventual stance difficult to predict.
Even if the reform survives the Senate with support from the coalition, it could face another major obstacle in the Chamber of Deputies, where a secret ballot could put its passage at risk.
Meloni nevertheless has not ruled out breaking the agreement with her allies. Pressure is also coming from the right, with concerns inside the prime minister’s office that Roberto Vannacci could challenge her politically by accusing her of inconsistency if she refuses to support the amendment.
Senate President Ignazio La Russa has continued to urge caution. According to people close to the party, he believes the final decision rests with Meloni and could be made at the last possible moment.
La Russa had previously backed the introduction of a runoff system as a way of protecting the reform, but Salvini opposed the proposal.
Could the dispute trigger early elections?
The uncertainty has created a tactical opportunity for Meloni, who may be able to exploit divisions among her coalition partners.
The central question is whether Forza Italia and the League would be willing to risk bringing down the electoral reform — and potentially the government itself — by opposing Meloni.
An early election at the beginning of 2027 could be the consequence of a full-scale coalition rupture, making the stakes particularly high.
But there are also internal political calculations behind the dispute.
Marina Berlusconi is reportedly opposed to unrestricted preference voting because she believes it could give Tajani significant influence over the composition of Forza Italia’s future parliamentary groups. Many of the party’s strongest preference-getters are aligned with the deputy prime minister, while Berlusconi’s camp could lose the guaranteed representation it has sought.
For Meloni, meanwhile, keeping the existing Rosatellum electoral system could offer a different advantage.
The current system includes single-member constituencies, which could strengthen tactical or “useful” voting against Vannacci. Meloni’s party could potentially perform better under that arrangement than under the majority bonus envisaged by the proposed reform.
That possibility may also appeal to the centre-left Democratic Party.
Democratic Party sees an opportunity
The Democratic Party is behind the Senate amendment on preference voting, with party strategist Francesco Boccia closely monitoring the numbers.
If Brothers of Italy were to support the proposal, the amendment would have a very strong majority. The centre-left opposition grouping has 73 votes, while Brothers of Italy has 63, potentially producing 136 votes out of 200.
If the electoral reform collapses, the Democratic Party could achieve another political objective: avoiding mandatory primaries to select the centre-left candidate for prime minister.
Under the proposed electoral system, the coalition leader would have to be identified in the election programme. If the reform fails, that requirement would disappear.
An early election could also make a primary contest between Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein and Five Star Movement leader Giuseppe Conte more difficult to organize. With little time before a potential vote, holding nationwide primaries could become impractical.
That scenario could also strengthen Schlein’s position. If the centre-left won an early election, it would be difficult to deny the premiership to the leader of the coalition’s strongest party.
Conte resists abandoning primaries
Convincing Conte to accept such an outcome, however, may prove difficult.
The Five Star Movement leader has reportedly indicated that he has no intention of abandoning the primary system. His position is that, regardless of which electoral rules are eventually adopted, the next centre-left prime minister should be chosen through a genuine competitive contest.
With the coalition divided and the Senate vote approaching, Meloni now faces a delicate calculation: preserve the agreement with her allies or back an amendment that could reshape the electoral battle — and potentially bring forward Italy’s next general election.
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