The NBA is moving closer to its first expansion in more than two decades, with Las Vegas emerging as the leading market ahead of Seattle as the league prepares to make a decision before the end of 2026.
Commissioner Adam Silver has said he wants the league’s 30 owners to vote on expansion before the end of the year. The NBA is expected to add two teams, with the new franchises potentially beginning play in the 2028-29 season.
The league has been examining expansion since the pandemic, when Silver first described it as the “manifest destiny” of the NBA. The process accelerated after the league completed its new 11-year, $76 billion media rights agreement.
Las Vegas leads the bidding
The Las Vegas process has moved significantly faster than Seattle’s, with three ownership groups competing for a potential franchise.
The finalists are led by Nancy Walton Laurie and Bill Laurie, Steve Apostolopoulos and Marc Lasry, and Bill Foley and Jerry Colangelo.
Sources cited by ESPN’s Shams Charania say the league could select the winning Las Vegas bid soon. The franchise is expected to command a valuation of around $10 billion, while the new owners could spend another $2 billion to $3 billion on a new arena.
Las Vegas has become an increasingly attractive market for major professional sports. Although its population and media market are smaller than Seattle’s, the city attracts tens of millions of visitors each year and has developed a strong sports following through teams including the NHL’s Golden Knights and WNBA’s Aces.
The NBA sees the city’s tourism economy and growing corporate and entertainment profile as significant advantages.
Seattle remains in contention
Seattle’s expansion prospects are closely tied to the outcome in Las Vegas.
The leading Seattle bid appears to be headed by Kraken owner Samantha Holloway’s One Roof Sports & Entertainment. The group has a majority stake in Climate Pledge Arena, which already hosts the Kraken and WNBA’s Seattle Storm and could accommodate an NBA team.
The Seattle franchise could be valued at around $6 billion, according to people familiar with the process.
Other potential bidders include the BlackSun Private Equity group, which has partnered with the Tulalip Tribes on a proposal involving a new arena and entertainment district north of Seattle. Industry sources have also indicated that at least one additional group has expressed interest without publicly identifying itself.
The NBA’s challenge is creating enough competition in Seattle to push the value of the franchise higher. Las Vegas, by contrast, already has three groups competing aggressively for the same team.
Portland’s arena dispute adds another layer
The expansion process could also affect the future of the Portland Trail Blazers.
New owner Tom Dundon is in discussions with Portland officials over renovations to the Moda Center and has reportedly used the possibility of a new Seattle franchise — and the broader expansion process — as leverage.
A Seattle team would be geographically close to Portland and could compete with the Trail Blazers for fans and corporate support.
Relocation, however, remains a less likely outcome than expansion. NBA commissioner Silver has previously described moving the Trail Blazers as a failure, while the financial cost of relocation would also be significant.
The league’s current expansion process could ultimately give Dundon greater leverage in negotiations over Portland’s arena without necessarily resulting in the team leaving the city.
Owners face a major financial decision
Expansion would require approval from at least 23 of the NBA’s 30 owners.
While there is broad momentum behind adding teams, some owners remain concerned that expansion could dilute talent and revenues. Others are worried about the potential impact on their existing regional markets.
If two new franchises generate between $15 billion and $18 billion in expansion fees, each existing owner could receive roughly $500 million to $600 million before the new teams begin playing.
The expansion fees would not be considered basketball-related income and therefore would not be shared directly with players.
Adding two teams would nevertheless reduce each existing franchise’s share of league-wide revenues. National television revenue alone could fall by roughly $9 million per team annually as the owners’ collective share is divided among 32 rather than 30 franchises.
A decision is approaching
The NBA has spent roughly six years examining a potential expansion, and the process is now entering its decisive phase.
Las Vegas currently has the stronger bidding field, while Seattle’s position could become clearer once the league selects its Las Vegas ownership group.
The remaining Las Vegas bidders could then turn their attention to Seattle, potentially creating the competition the NBA needs to drive the value of a second expansion franchise.
If the league secures approval before the end of 2026, the NBA could enter the 2028-29 season with 32 teams for the first time in its history.
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