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NATO prepares ‘Theory of Victory’ to counter a potential Russian attack

NATO is preparing a new defense plan for its eastern flank that would rely heavily on drones, artificial intelligence and a rapid counteroffensive in the event of a Russian attack. The strategy, known as the “Theory of Victory,” is expected to be presented by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alexus Grynkewich in Poland on Oct. 12.

The plan outlines a potential military response to a Russian attack along NATO’s eastern flank, stretching from Finland through the Baltic states and Poland to Bulgaria, according to details reported by Bloomberg.

Drones and AI would lead the initial response

Under the proposed strategy, NATO’s first response would involve large-scale drone attacks using relatively inexpensive unmanned systems operated by a limited number of troops. Artificial intelligence would help identify and prioritize targets.

If the initial assault were repelled, NATO forces would then move to a counteroffensive aimed at Russian command centers and forces on the battlefield. The document reportedly calls for the destruction of enemy command structures in a “rapid and overwhelming” operation.

Details of the proposed military operations remain limited, leaving questions over the potential human cost, which units would be deployed and how Russia might respond if its forces came under sustained pressure.

The plan comes amid growing concerns over the risk of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated on Oct. 1 that Moscow could consider using nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict with the alliance.

EU considers joint response to hybrid attacks

The NATO plan comes as the European Union is also working on a separate mechanism to strengthen its response to hostile actions targeting member states.

EU defense ministers meeting in Brussels on Sept. 28 began discussions on an Emergency Security Protocol, a consultation mechanism modeled in part on NATO’s Article 4. The framework would allow the 27 member states to exchange information and coordinate potential responses to external threats, including sabotage, arson, cyberattacks and airspace violations.

The proposed mechanism would complement NATO’s existing warning and response systems and provide EU governments with a framework for coordinating action against hybrid threats.

The parallel initiatives underline the growing focus within both NATO and the EU on strengthening defenses against conventional and hybrid threats as diplomatic efforts to ease tensions with Russia continue to make limited progress.

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