Kemi Badenoch appears to have strengthened her grip on Britain’s Conservative Party, but the central question facing her remains unchanged: can she turn a more confident and united party into one that voters actually want to return to power?
After four days at the Conservatives’ annual conference in Birmingham, the mood inside the party was markedly more optimistic than it has been in recent years. Badenoch, who became leader after the party’s disastrous 2024 general election defeat, looked increasingly assured, while activists and senior figures appeared broadly united behind her.
Her personal ratings have also improved. According to Ipsos, Badenoch is now the second-most popular party leader, behind Labour leader and Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Yet the Conservative Party itself continues to struggle in the polls. A recent YouGov survey put Labour five points ahead, with Reform UK on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent.
That gap captures the central dilemma of Badenoch’s leadership: she may be becoming more popular, but she has yet to translate that personal progress into a broader recovery for her party.
A party rediscovering its identity
The Birmingham conference nevertheless suggested that the Conservatives may finally be emerging from the internal divisions that have dominated the party for much of the past decade.
The ideological battles between supporters of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were largely absent. So too were many of the political slogans that once defined Conservative governments, including “Levelling Up”, “Northern Powerhouse” and Net Zero.
Instead, Badenoch’s Conservatives focused heavily on the economy, defence and welfare, attempting to present a clearer centre-right identity.
Her political vision was set out in The Right Way, a substantial document outlining the principles she believes should guide the party. Modelled partly on Margaret Thatcher’s The Right Approach, it is intended to provide an ideological anchor for Conservatives as they seek to rebuild after their 2024 defeat.
Badenoch has also sought to make the party more disciplined and professional. Her team has worked to engage think tanks and policy groups, while using social media and unconventional political events to reach voters beyond the traditional Westminster audience.
One of the conference’s biggest successes was the so-called “Birmingham Tapestry”, a satirical imitation of the famous Bayeux Tapestry depicting political opponents and prominent journalists. The stunt generated considerable attention online and helped the Conservatives dominate parts of the political conversation.
The appearance of television personality Jeremy Clarkson was another example of the party’s effort to broaden its reach. His discussion with Conservative politicians attracted significant online attention, demonstrating how the party is experimenting with new ways of communicating in an increasingly fragmented media environment.
The Reform UK problem
For all the optimism in Birmingham, Reform UK remains the Conservatives’ most immediate political threat.
Nigel Farage’s party continues to poll ahead of the Conservatives, despite recent controversies surrounding Farage and his party. Reform has effectively become a home for voters who believe the Conservatives have moved too far from their traditional positions, particularly on immigration, taxation and the size of the state.
Badenoch has responded by moving the Conservatives further to the right on several issues. Her party has proposed tougher migration policies, welfare cuts, lower taxes, looser climate targets and increased defence spending.
But this strategy carries a risk. By trying to win back Reform voters, the Conservatives could alienate more centrist voters who have already moved towards the Liberal Democrats.
Badenoch has rejected calls for an electoral pact with Reform, and relations between the two parties remain deeply hostile. Reform, meanwhile, appears determined to keep attacking the Conservatives rather than helping unite the British right.
Political analysts warn that the division could ultimately benefit Labour. Unless either the Conservatives or Reform establishes clear dominance on the right, the split could remain a decisive factor at the next general election.
Can Badenoch broaden the party’s appeal?
Perhaps the biggest unanswered question is whether the Conservatives are doing enough to win back voters who once supported them.
The party’s conference was notably more focused on traditional centre-right themes, but some activists questioned whether it had become too comfortable as an affluent, predominantly southern party.
There was relatively little discussion of the northern constituencies and working-class voters who helped deliver Conservative victories in 2017 and 2019. Migration, another major issue for Reform supporters, also received less attention than some expected.
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