South Korea’s growing tensions with Ukraine and continued fuel shipments to Russia raise concerns that Seoul may be shifting its geopolitical alignment. European governments must act to prevent a rift with the Asian democracy from weakening security across Eurasia.
South Korea’s dispute with Ukraine over two North Korean prisoners of war has escalated, with Seoul recalling its ambassador from Kyiv. The Guardian has also reported that large quantities of fuel are being shipped from South Korean ports to Russia, helping Moscow offset shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks.
These developments suggest a potential shift towards closer relations with Russia and China, a prospect that demands a clear response from Europe. The need for greater European engagement is heightened by Washington’s own fuel agreement with Moscow.
The war in Ukraine has become a global conflict
Russia’s ability to sustain its war against Ukraine depends increasingly on support from beyond Europe. China provides substantial economic backing, North Korea supplies weapons and ammunition and has deployed troops, while Iran has contributed drones and munitions.
As a result, European security is becoming increasingly intertwined with that of East Asia.
Japan has recognised this connection, adopting the principle that Ukraine today could be East Asia tomorrow. Tokyo has provided substantial support to Ukraine while also backing other democracies facing security threats, including Taiwan. South Korea’s apparent move in the opposite direction therefore presents a serious challenge for Europe.
South Korea risks undermining its own security
South Korea has benefited significantly from cooperation with democratic partners. Its defence industry, now among the world’s largest, has attracted considerable international demand, while companies such as Samsung rely on access to advanced European technology from suppliers including ASML.
Yet President Lee Jae-myung and other progressive politicians have traditionally favoured engagement with North Korea, sometimes accepting human rights concerns and geopolitical risks in pursuit of reconciliation. Uncertainty over the United States and Seoul’s economic relationship with Russia also help explain why the South Korean government may be reluctant to treat Moscow as an adversary.
A geopolitical realignment could nevertheless carry serious consequences for South Korea itself.
North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces are gaining valuable battlefield experience, including knowledge of how to counter modern Western defence systems and operate in an environment shaped by drones. They could bring these lessons back to the Korean peninsula, potentially altering the military balance between North and South Korea.
Closer ties with authoritarian governments could also create challenges for South Korea’s democratic institutions. Meanwhile, a pro-Russian shift risks damaging relations with the European Union, including a free-trade relationship underpinning tens of billions of euros in trade.
Europe must strengthen ties with Seoul
The EU and the Netherlands, as international and strategic partners of South Korea, should work to prevent Seoul from becoming a weak link in Eurasian security.
European governments must press South Korea to repair its relationship with Kyiv. The longer the dispute continues, the more it benefits Russia, China and North Korea. Europe should also examine whether sanctions or export controls could be used to address South Korean fuel supplies that help sustain Russia’s war effort.
More importantly, Europe needs to invest substantially in its long-term relationship with Seoul. The objective should be to demonstrate that supporting Ukraine and standing alongside democratic partners serves South Korea’s own strategic interests.
Europe has increasingly recognised the importance of supporting Ukraine for its own future, but it has paid insufficient attention to the war’s global dimensions. The relatively muted European response to North Korea’s direct military involvement in a conflict on the continent illustrated this shortcoming.
European and East Asian security can no longer be treated as separate issues. If Europe wants to retain influence in a rapidly changing international order, it must adapt its strategy accordingly — and ensure that South Korea remains a partner in defending the international order against authoritarian pressure.
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