As European governments accelerate efforts to rearm, a familiar ritual has emerged: every week, another senior European official — often a military figure — warns the public that Russia could invade some unspecified part of Europe.
If there is no particular event driving the week’s agenda, the hypothetical target is usually selected from a familiar list: the Baltic states or Poland.
I understand perfectly well why these warnings are being made. There is a very straightforward reason.
European governments are already responsible for funding generous welfare systems and social security programmes. Now they also need to persuade their populations to accept additional spending — and, inevitably, higher taxes — to finance a massive military build-up.
That is a legitimate political challenge. I have no objection to governments explaining the security risks facing Europe.
The problem starts when these warnings turn into a permanent exercise in speculation.
In recent days, we have also seen reports suggesting that Vladimir Putin could lose power in Russia. The argument behind these claims is that Russian state and financial oligarchs supposedly want to get rid of Putin so they can end the war in Ukraine, restore the country’s economy and move on.
This is a remarkably optimistic interpretation of Russian politics.
Some figures who never openly opposed Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine have recently made comments along the lines of “things are not going well.” Turning such statements into evidence of an imminent political collapse in Moscow would probably not rank among the top 100 mistakes European observers have made about Russia this century.
And yet these stories can become major talking points in European media. Even more surprisingly, some political and business elites build broader analyses around them.
If Europe is going to debate Russia, it should start from a more realistic assessment of what is actually happening.
Take last week’s reported drone attack targeting a Ukrainian aircraft in Leipzig. That incident deserves serious scrutiny. It is a tangible development with potential implications for European security. It is far more useful to analyse such events than to repeatedly predict the collapse of the Kremlin or the invasion of another European country.
Russia is not following Europe’s political calendar
Vladimir Putin has a revisionist and increasingly aggressive foreign policy agenda. That should be taken seriously. But it is often discussed in Europe in the least useful way possible.
Putin is not going to suddenly invade a European country simply because a particular year — say, 2030 — has been identified as a potential deadline.
Nor is he likely to “lose” the next election in the way European politicians might lose one.
And, since we are on the subject, when was the last time Russia actually experienced a peaceful transfer of power through an election?
Even after the 1917 Revolution, the Bolsheviks did not exactly demonstrate a great commitment to accepting electoral outcomes. Lenin’s movement lost the elections to the Constituent Assembly, only for the results to be effectively discarded once the Bolsheviks had secured power.
That history matters because Russia is not simply a European democracy with a different political culture. Its political system has developed around a very different relationship between the state, political power and elections.
So no, Putin is unlikely to be removed from power anytime soon.
At least not in the next few years.
And during that same period, Russia is unlikely to invade another European country either.
That does not mean Europe should become complacent. Quite the opposite. European countries have every reason to strengthen their defences, improve military readiness and prepare for a more dangerous security environment.
But preparation is not the same thing as prediction.
Europe needs to understand the nature of the Russian state before trying to forecast its next move. And unfortunately, many of our European friends still fundamentally misunderstand what Russia is.
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