European Commission report warns that the EU is entering a long-term demographic decline, with deaths already exceeding births and the working-age population expected to shrink sharply
Births across the European Union have fallen to historic lows as Europe moves towards a rapidly ageing and shrinking population, according to the European Commission’s 2026 Demography Report.
The report projects that the EU population will peak at around 453.3 million in 2029 before entering a prolonged decline. By 2050, the bloc’s population is expected to fall to roughly 445 million, while by the end of the century it could drop below 399 million — returning to levels last seen in the second half of the 1970s.
The Commission described the demographic shift as a long-term transformation rather than a temporary trend, warning that it will have major implications for economic growth, labour markets and social security systems.
Europeans are living longer while birth rates remain at historically low levels, creating an increasingly pronounced imbalance between generations.
The EU’s population currently stands at around 450.6 million. Since 2012, deaths have exceeded births every year, meaning that net migration is the only factor keeping the bloc’s population growing.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, migration was not sufficient to offset the natural population decline, causing the EU’s population to fall for the first time. Population growth resumed as migration flows increased in subsequent years.
Italy has Europe’s oldest population
The median age in the EU has risen to 44.9 years, with Italy recording the highest figure at 49.1 years, followed by Bulgaria, Portugal and Greece.
Ireland has the youngest population in the bloc, with a median age of 39.6.
The ageing trend is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. By 2100, people aged 65 and over are projected to account for more than one-third of the EU’s population.
The share of people aged 80 and above is also expected to more than double, rising from around 6 per cent today to more than 15 per cent by the end of the century.
The pressure on the working-age population will be particularly significant. Today, there are around 34 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people aged between 15 and 64. By 2100, that figure is expected to exceed 60.
In effect, the EU could have roughly one retiree for every 1.5 working-age people.
Fertility falls to historic low
The main driver of Europe’s demographic transformation is the sharp decline in births.
Only around 3.55 million babies were born in the EU in 2024, almost half the 6.8 million births recorded in 1964.
The average fertility rate has fallen to 1.34 children per woman, well below the replacement level of around 2.1.
The European Commission expects fertility to recover only modestly in the coming years, even under more optimistic scenarios.
The report identifies economic uncertainty, high housing costs, difficulties in balancing work and family life, delayed parenthood, cultural changes and changing lifestyles among the main factors behind the decline in births.
The fact that fertility rates have also fallen in Nordic countries with extensive social support systems suggests that the trend cannot be explained solely by the availability or design of family policies.
Europeans are living longer
At the same time, life expectancy continues to increase.
Average life expectancy in the EU reached 81.5 years in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
Projections suggest that by 2100, average life expectancy will exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men.
The Commission described longer lives as a major achievement resulting from advances in medicine and living conditions, but warned that pension systems, healthcare services and working arrangements will need to adapt to the new demographic reality.
The ageing population could also create new economic opportunities, according to the report.
The so-called “longevity economy” — covering products and services aimed at older consumers — could become a major source of growth in sectors including healthcare, technology, finance and care services.
Europe faces a shrinking workforce
The EU’s working-age population is also expected to decline rapidly.
Between 2025 and 2050, the bloc is projected to lose an average of 1.2 million working-age people each year. Without migration, the annual decline would be twice as large, at around 2.4 million people.
The Commission said future economic growth could therefore no longer depend primarily on an expanding workforce. Instead, productivity gains, innovation and higher labour-force participation will become increasingly important.
The report highlights women, young people, migrants and people currently outside the labour market as key groups whose participation could be increased.
Research by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre found that if all EU member states reached Sweden’s labour-force participation rates, much of the negative impact of population ageing on the workforce could be offset.
Migration cannot solve the problem alone
Around 47 million people born outside Europe currently live in the EU, accounting for approximately 10.4 per cent of the bloc’s population.
The Commission said migration plays an important role in slowing demographic decline but cannot provide a long-term solution on its own.
Migrants themselves grow older over time, while fertility rates among immigrant populations tend to move closer to those of the countries where they settle.
As a result, the report concludes that migration can delay and soften the effects of population ageing, but cannot reverse the underlying demographic trend.
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