The European Union is facing one of the most intense periods of geopolitical pressure in its history, amid Russia’s hybrid attacks, anti-European rhetoric from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump and growing political divisions within the bloc. Italian economist and Corriere della Sera columnist Federico Fubini argues that Europe has entered a critical period, facing both external threats and internal political fragmentation.
According to Fubini, pressure aimed at weakening the European Union is no longer coming from a single source. Alongside Russia’s military and hybrid operations, anti-European rhetoric emanating from Washington and the growing influence of far-right movements in some European countries are threatening the bloc’s political cohesion.
Fubini examines the recent irregular migration crisis in Spain’s Ceuta and a missile attack near the Polish city of Lublin within the same framework, arguing that these developments should not be viewed solely as security or migration issues. Rather, he suggests, they are part of a broader strategy targeting Europe’s democratic structures and institutional cohesion.
Fubini also cites the European Commission’s foreign policy arm as assessing developments in Ceuta in the context of hybrid warfare. He argues that Russia-linked digital networks are seeking to amplify the crisis through social media and create a perception of chaos among European publics.
“The EU is retaining its economic strength”
Fubini rejects claims that Europe is in decline, emphasizing that the European Union remains one of the world’s three major economic powers alongside the United States and China.
Citing World Bank data, he says per-capita economic growth in the European Union has reached 23% since 2022, compared with 15.4% in the United States over the same period. Fubini notes that population growth and immigration have played a significant role in the overall expansion of the U.S. economy.
Trump and Russia are serving the same end
Fubini argues that Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric toward Europe is not driven solely by economic competition. He also points to Russia’s longstanding efforts to destabilize Europe through missile attacks, drones, propaganda, cyber operations and migration pressure.
The article notes that, following the Ceuta crisis, some conservative circles in the United States and Russia-linked digital networks have promoted similar narratives on social media. Fubini argues that this convergence is aimed at deepening political polarization across Europe.
The real risk: internal divisions
According to Fubini, the greatest threat facing the European Union comes not from external pressure but from political fragmentation within the bloc.
He points to widening disagreements among member states over Russia policy. While the Baltic states, Poland, the Nordic countries and parts of Germany have moved toward greater integration in the defense sphere, some governments have remained more reluctant to embrace common security policies.
Fubini also says Italy’s recent push for greater flexibility from Brussels in rule-of-law oversight has opened another front for debate within the bloc. He argues that France’s upcoming presidential election and the rise of the far right in Germany could prove decisive for Europe’s future.
Fubini warns that assuming the political and economic gains Europe has achieved over the past 70 years are permanent could be misleading. The future of the European Union, he argues, will depend both on its ability to present a united front against external threats and on its capacity to preserve political cohesion from within.
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