Icelanders will vote Saturday on whether to resume negotiations on European Union membership, with security concerns surrounding Greenland adding a new dimension to the debate.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for greater U.S. control over Greenland have given Iceland’s EU membership referendum an unexpected geopolitical dimension.
For years, debates over Iceland’s possible EU membership have largely focused on domestic issues, particularly fishing quotas and agriculture. But with Greenland less than 300 kilometers from Iceland and growing Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic, voters are increasingly considering the country’s wider security position.
Dagur Eggertsson, a former Reykjavík mayor and prominent figure in the pro-EU campaign, said Trump’s statements had become an important issue for voters.
He argued that the changing security environment showed the need for closer European ties. “Small and middle powers need to stick together,” he said, stressing that the issue had become more urgent.
Sovereignty at the center of the vote
The referendum is ultimately centered on sovereignty, but the issue divides both camps.
A Gallup poll conducted in mid-August showed the pro-EU side with a narrow lead, at 51.5 percent.
Supporters of reopening membership talks argue that closer ties with the EU could strengthen Iceland’s sovereignty and security. Opponents, however, say EU membership could limit the country’s control over key areas such as fisheries and agriculture.
Fishing quotas were a major factor behind Iceland’s previous attempt to join the EU, which was abandoned in 2015.
Iceland has been independent from Denmark since 1944 and remains deeply attached to its national sovereignty. The country is a NATO member and has maintained a bilateral defense agreement with the United States since 1951.
At the same time, Iceland is already closely integrated with Europe through the European Economic Area and the Schengen Area. The country is estimated to implement around three-quarters of EU rules through its EEA membership.
The referendum will therefore determine whether Iceland should move beyond its existing relationship with the EU and formally reopen accession negotiations.
Security concerns gain prominence
For some voters, the changing geopolitical environment has strengthened the case for closer European ties.
Tumi Árnason, a 35-year-old musician from Reykjavík, said he planned to vote in favor of reopening negotiations, citing economic concerns as his main reason. But he also said the international situation made closer alignment with Europe more attractive.
Another voter, 68-year-old Hannah Sigurðardóttir, questioned whether Iceland could continue to rely on the United States as it had in the past and argued for stronger relations with European allies.
The debate, however, is not limited to Trump’s policies. Iceland’s strategic importance is growing as climate change opens new Arctic shipping routes and competition over the region’s resources intensifies.
Rural voters remain more skeptical
Outside Reykjavík, where roughly two-thirds of Iceland’s population lives, opposition to EU membership appears stronger.
In the town of Selfoss, agricultural concerns remain prominent. Farmers have displayed the “Áfram Ísland” — “Forward Iceland” — slogan associated with the anti-EU campaign.
Eighteen-year-old builder Ari Hrafn Elíasson said he planned to vote against reopening negotiations, arguing that farmers and fishermen were the backbone of the Icelandic economy.
Other voters are more focused on economic issues. Nineteen-year-old Dagmar Isabella supports reopening EU talks and said the cost of living, particularly rents and mortgages, was a greater concern for her than foreign policy.
She also sees the euro as a potential advantage, pointing to Iceland’s annual inflation rate of 5.6 percent in July, compared with a significantly lower rate in the euro area.
For Icelanders, Saturday’s vote will therefore be about more than EU membership alone. It will also reflect how the country views its sovereignty, economic future and security position in an increasingly contested North Atlantic and Arctic region.
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