The discovery of oil deposits off the coast of the archipelago controlled by London, which Argentines call the Malvinas and claim as their own, has revived strategic interest in the islands. For now, those extracting the oil remain under sanctions
Oil, and Donald Trump, have reopened the question of the Falkland Islands, the South Atlantic archipelago controlled by Britain and claimed by Argentina, the site of a bloody 1982 war that cost nearly a thousand lives. Argentine president Javier Milei, quick to spot an opportunity, has gone on the offensive: in a speech last night he declared that the winds of change are blowing in favor of Argentina’s claims, and that Britain is on a path of decline while Argentina will prevail.
Trump himself had already cast doubt, in a television interview the day before, on US support for London in any territorial dispute over the Falklands, saying Britain hadn’t been helpful on Iran and that everything is therefore under review. He added that he wasn’t sure London still had the capacity to defend the archipelago.
Word had already leaked out of Washington in recent days that the Americans might use the Falklands as a point of leverage over London, to push the British government into higher defense spending.
Adding to all this is the discovery of significant oil deposits off the southern archipelago. An Anglo-Israeli consortium is about to begin production at one field, known as Sea Lion, but Milei has announced sanctions against any companies that extract crude around the Falklands. That oil has also caught the eye of the US administration, which has just gained control of Venezuela’s reserves; London fears the Argentines may be negotiating with Washington to push the British out and split the oil between them.
In recent days, Argentina’s energy minister travelled to Washington for talks with administration officials and oil-industry executives. Domestic factors are pushing Milei too: his popularity has dropped sharply and the economy is struggling. With elections due next year, nationalist rhetoric offers a convenient rallying point.
The Falklands sit at the heart of Argentine national identity, and it was no accident that after Argentina’s World Cup win over England, its players waved a banner asserting sovereignty over the Malvinas, as the islands are known in Buenos Aires.
In reality, Milei is an Anglophile and an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, and his earlier attempts to thaw relations with London went nowhere significant. It’s also worth noting that Andy Burnham, Britain’s new prime minister, would stand to gain domestically, as a Labour leader, from standing firm against two right-wing populists like Trump and Milei, who share an evident ideological affinity.
All the ingredients for a confrontation are therefore in place. But broader geopolitical considerations are also pulling Washington toward Argentina. Countering Chinese influence extends to the southern hemisphere too, and the Falklands occupy a strategically important position, one where London no longer seems able to guarantee security. Washington may simply be judging that it’s better served by allies who are closer at hand and more pliable.
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