Vineyards moving higher into the mountains, olive groves expanding northward and tomatoes facing growing pressure from heat and water shortages could become defining features of Italy’s agricultural landscape by 2050.
Climate change is already beginning to redraw the country’s farming map, creating new opportunities for some crops while making traditional growing regions increasingly difficult to sustain. But the transformation will not simply mean moving crops from southern Italy to the north. Different crops will respond to changing conditions in very different ways.
Experts Carlo Andreotti and Davide Cammarano say the next 25 years could bring major changes in how and where some of Italy’s most recognisable foods are produced.
Vineyards could move to higher ground
Grapevines are among the clearest indicators of the changing climate. Temperature and water availability influence when grapes ripen, as well as their acidity, sugar levels, aromas and ultimately the character of the wine.
Research published in 2024 in the journal Atmosphere examined how Italy’s wine-growing conditions could change through 2080. The findings point to a gradual shift in the country’s climatic zones suitable for viticulture.
The change could be particularly visible in the Alps. In South Tyrol, where vineyards currently reach elevations of around 1,000 metres, rising temperatures could make higher and previously unsuitable areas increasingly viable. Some locations above 1,000 metres could eventually become suitable for vines.
But moving vineyards uphill is not as simple as finding new land.
“There will be a move to higher altitudes, but it will have to be done carefully and based on solid technical information,” said Andreotti, a professor at the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano.
Extreme weather is one of the biggest risks. A spring frost arriving at a critical stage of plant development could threaten major investments in new vineyards.
The future of wine production will therefore depend increasingly on technology, including protective systems, canopy management, emergency irrigation, new rootstocks and grape varieties, as well as more accurate assessment of climate risks.
There is also an environmental cost to consider. Expanding vineyards into higher elevations could affect biodiversity, forests, pastures and other ecosystem services.
Climate change will not necessarily make traditional wine regions disappear. Instead, producers may have to change what and how they grow.
South Tyrol has an advantage because its wine industry is highly diversified, with numerous grape varieties and styles. That gives producers more room to adapt than regions whose identity is closely tied to a single grape or wine.
Regulation could also become an obstacle. Existing rules governing permitted grape varieties, production levels, irrigation and cultivation altitudes may need to evolve as climate conditions change.
Olive groves could push north
If vineyards move higher, olive cultivation could gradually expand both northward and into higher elevations.
The Italian Council for Agricultural Research and Analysis of Agricultural Economics (CREA) considers the olive tree an important indicator of changes in the Mediterranean climate. Its projections suggest that areas climatically suitable for olive cultivation could increase from around 39% of the Mediterranean region in the 2000s to roughly 50% by 2050.
The expansion could be particularly significant at higher elevations in central Italy and farther north, including areas around Treviso and Pordenone.
But the emergence of olive groves farther north will not solve the problems facing traditional olive-growing regions. Southern areas are likely to experience greater heat and water stress, while changing conditions could also alter the prevalence of pests and diseases.
The challenge, therefore, is not simply finding new places where olives can grow. Farmers will also need to keep existing production areas viable through changes in varieties, soil management, irrigation and orchard design.
Tomatoes face a more difficult future
Industrial tomatoes present a different challenge. Italy is one of the world’s major producers, with important growing regions in both the Po Valley and southern Italy, including Puglia’s Capitanata area.
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