Two regional elections in Germany are putting Friedrich Merz and his CDU under renewed political pressure, with results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin being closely watched for what they could reveal about the strength of the chancellor’s leadership.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is facing the possibility of a particularly poor result, while the far-right AfD is again competing for first place in an eastern German state.
The latest polls put the governing Social Democrats (SPD) at around 37%, narrowly ahead of the AfD on 36%. The Left party is polling at 9%, followed by the CDU on 6% and the Greens on 5%. The figures represent a dramatic turnaround from earlier projections, which had placed the AfD comfortably ahead.
Much of the change has been attributed to SPD state premier Manu Schwesig, whose campaign has helped the party recover almost 20 percentage points. The SPD has governed the state for 28 years.
The contest has also highlighted a familiar feature of German elections: tactical voting. With the race closely fought, voters opposed to the AfD may be consolidating behind the party they believe has the best chance of defeating it.
For the CDU, however, the most damaging scenario would be falling below the 5% threshold. That would exclude the party from the state parliament for the first time in its history.
Such a result would also raise questions about Merz’s position within the federal CDU. The chancellor has reportedly called party leaders together before polls close, with the result expected to fuel discussion over his reform agenda and political authority.
Berlin becomes another test
The picture is different in Berlin, where the Left and CDU are competing closely for first place.
The latest figures put the Left at around 21%, the CDU at 20% and the AfD at 18%. The Greens are on 15%, while the SPD is polling at 12%.
An AfD result of 18% would represent a significant increase from the previous election, particularly in parts of the city’s former East Berlin districts, where the party has gained support.
The CDU is also defending a difficult position in the capital after Berlin’s governing mayor, Kai Wegner, decided not to seek another term following a series of controversies.
A victory for the Left would carry particular significance. Led in Berlin by Elif Eralp, the party has campaigned on measures including the expropriation of thousands of properties as a way of tackling rising rents.
Such a result could also strengthen discussions about whether the Left, SPD and Greens could form a broader political alliance at the national level in the future.
The two elections therefore offer more than a snapshot of regional politics. They will provide another indication of the changing balance between Germany’s traditional parties, the AfD and the increasingly competitive Left — while putting additional focus on the political position of Merz as his government attempts to push ahead with its reform programme.
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