Russia’s parliamentary election has produced few surprises, with President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party on course to retain its constitutional majority in the State Duma. But while the political outcome was largely predictable, questions over how the Kremlin will use its strengthened parliamentary position are emerging at a time of heightened concern about Russia’s war in Ukraine and its broader intentions toward Europe.
Preliminary results indicate that United Russia will remain by far the dominant force in parliament, with the parties expected to clear the 5% threshold all having previously held seats in the Duma. The result comes after more than four and a half years of war in Ukraine, significant military losses, economic pressures and recent disruptions to Russia’s fuel infrastructure caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
The election also took place against a backdrop of growing concern in Europe over whether Moscow could seek to test NATO’s response in the coming months.
A predictable election, but uncertain consequences
The Kremlin is expected to portray the election result as evidence of continued public support for Putin and his policies. The result could therefore provide political backing for the government as it decides how to proceed with the war, although the precise implications remain unclear.
The only explicitly anti-war party allowed to enter the election, Yabloko, was removed from the party-list ballot by Russia’s Supreme Court shortly after being registered. Its chairman, Nikolai Rybakov, argued that the composition of the new Duma would leave little room for a political challenge to the Kremlin’s position.
Yabloko candidates nevertheless remained in some individual constituency races, but preliminary results indicated that none had secured seats. The party also said that some candidates had been prevented from running and that some election observers had been unable to participate.
The vote itself was held amid continuing attacks between Russia and Ukraine. On the final day of voting, Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on Moscow and surrounding areas, with an oil refinery among the facilities hit. Russian authorities reported deaths in the Moscow region.
The attacks highlighted how the war has increasingly reached Russian territory, while also adding to concerns about the next phase of the conflict.
European intelligence services divided over the risk to NATO
Against this backdrop, European intelligence officials have issued differing assessments of the possibility of a more direct Russian challenge to NATO.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s Security Information Service, said a limited Russian incursion into NATO territory, false-flag provocations or a major influence campaign could occur within “months, not years”. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has similarly warned that Russia could potentially use drones or missiles to test NATO’s commitment to Article 5, which commits members to collective defence. French President Emmanuel Macron has described the intelligence behind Tusk’s warnings as credible and well documented.
However, officials in the Baltic states have taken a more cautious position.
Normunds Mežviets, head of Latvia’s VDD security service, said there were no indications of an imminent attack. He acknowledged signs that Russia was preparing for potentially more decisive action in Europe, but said it remained unclear whether these preparations reflected concrete military plans or a broader attempt to create fear and uncertainty.
Estonian Foreign Ministry secretary general Jonatan Vseviov has likewise warned against panic, saying that authorities would make clear if there were credible reasons to fear an attack.
The different assessments underline an important distinction: European officials broadly agree that Russia poses a serious security challenge, but they do not share the same assessment of whether a direct attack on NATO is imminent.
Sabotage and pressure below the threshold of war
Even among officials who do not anticipate an immediate invasion, there is greater concern about Russian activity below the threshold of conventional warfare.
European intelligence chiefs say sabotage, cyber activity, influence operations and attacks on infrastructure are likely to remain part of Moscow’s strategy. Latvian officials have reported a shift toward targets connected to military support for Ukraine, including railway infrastructure and defence-related facilities. Swedish military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson has also warned that such activity could be aimed at weakening European support for Ukraine and creating divisions within NATO.
The concern is not limited to isolated incidents. European officials say repeated acts of sabotage can force intelligence and security agencies to investigate a wide range of fires, malfunctions and other incidents as possible hostile actions, placing additional pressure on already stretched resources.
At the same time, European officials acknowledge that heightened public anxiety can itself become a vulnerability. Baltic governments in particular have cautioned that exaggerated expectations of an imminent Russian attack could contribute to the very uncertainty and disruption that Moscow is accused of seeking to create.
What comes next
The immediate political consequence of Russia’s election is relatively clear: the Kremlin is set to retain a dominant position in parliament. What remains less certain is how that position will be used as the war enters another winter.
President Putin has recently ruled out another mobilisation wave under current circumstances, although concerns about a future call-up remain in Russian society. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to end the war have so far failed to produce a lasting breakthrough, while Russia and Ukraine continue to intensify drone and missile attacks.
For Europe, the challenge is therefore twofold. Governments must prepare for the possibility of further Russian escalation while avoiding assumptions that an attack on NATO is inevitable or imminent.
The election result gives the Kremlin a parliament that is broadly aligned with its policies. European intelligence assessments, meanwhile, suggest that Moscow’s confrontation with the West could intensify in different forms, from sabotage and influence operations to more direct military pressure. The key uncertainty is not whether tensions will remain high, but how far Russia is prepared to take them.
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