Brazil’s presidential election is drawing international attention as the country weighs its future foreign policy and its position between the United States, China and the broader Global South.
The first round of voting is scheduled for October 4, with a second round on October 25 if no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes. Twelve candidates are currently in the race after Brazil’s electoral court rejected Pablo Marçal’s candidacy.
Recent polling shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in a closely contested race. A September 29 Atlas/Bloomberg poll put Lula at 45.3% and Bolsonaro at 42.2% in the first round, while a hypothetical runoff showed the two effectively tied at 47.6% and 47.7%, respectively.
Brazil’s position between Washington and Beijing
Brazil’s foreign policy could have wider implications for the balance of influence in Latin America.
The country is the region’s largest economy and most populous nation, giving its government considerable weight in regional diplomacy. Lula has promoted stronger ties with China and the BRICS group while advocating greater autonomy from the United States and other Western powers.
Under a Bolsonaro administration, foreign policy would be expected to place greater emphasis on relations with Washington and a tougher approach to organized crime. Flávio Bolsonaro has also campaigned on strengthening Brazil’s ties with the United States and opposing what he describes as the political influence of the left.
The differences extend to international institutions and economic policy. Lula has supported the expansion of BRICS and discussed alternatives to the dollar in international trade, while his government has sought closer economic and diplomatic relations with Beijing.
Lula’s foreign policy
Lula has long presented himself as a political leader capable of maintaining dialogue with different global blocs.
His government condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but did not join Western sanctions against Moscow. Lula has also sought a more independent position on the conflict in Gaza and has maintained close relations with China.
His political history is rooted in Brazil’s Workers’ Party, which he co-founded in 1980. He later helped establish the São Paulo Forum, a network that brought together left-wing political movements from across Latin America.
Lula has maintained relationships with several left-wing governments in the region, including those of Cuba, Venezuela and Bolivia. His positions on the governments of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua have also drawn criticism from opponents.
The Bolsonaro family and the election
The election also has a strong personal dimension involving the Bolsonaro family.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was convicted over a coup-related case and is serving his sentence under house arrest. His son Flávio Bolsonaro is now the main presidential candidate representing the Bolsonaro political movement.
Flávio has campaigned on conservative social policies, closer relations with the United States and a tougher approach to organized crime. He has also said he would seek to reverse legal measures taken against members of his family.
Reuters reported that the election has become a test of the durability of the political movement built around Jair Bolsonaro, while Flávio seeks to maintain its influence under his own leadership.
Crime and the role of the state
Security is another major issue in the election, particularly given the strength of organized criminal groups in several parts of Brazil.
The debate reflects a wider disagreement in Latin America over how governments should confront criminal organizations. Some left-wing governments in the region have favoured negotiations, social programmes and policies aimed at reducing violence rather than relying primarily on military or police operations.
Brazil has recorded improvements in some crime indicators. The country registered its lowest homicide rate in 11 years in 2024, according to figures cited in the original analysis. At the same time, major criminal organizations such as Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho remain powerful.
The experience of neighbouring countries has also shaped the debate. In Ecuador, for example, the homicide rate declined substantially during Rafael Correa’s presidency, while criminal organizations expanded their territorial and organizational reach during the same period.
A closely watched vote
The election comes at a time when Latin America’s political landscape is changing and governments across the region are reassessing their relations with Washington, Beijing and one another.
For Brazil, the outcome will help determine the direction of its foreign policy, its relationship with the BRICS group and its approach to the United States. Recent polling indicates that the contest between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro is highly competitive, but polls are measurements of voter intentions at particular moments and do not determine the eventual result.
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