A potential victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential election could weaken environmental protections and accelerate deforestation, raising concerns about the Amazon’s role in limiting global warming.
Brazil’s presidential election has major implications for the future of the Amazon rainforest, one of the world’s most important natural defences against climate change. Environmentalists warn that a return to far-right leadership could undermine efforts to curb deforestation and push the rainforest closer to an ecological tipping point.
The Amazon absorbs and stores large amounts of carbon dioxide, helping to limit the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. When forests are burned or cleared, stored carbon is released and the ecosystem’s capacity to absorb further emissions is reduced.
Researchers have warned that if deforestation continues, parts of the Amazon could eventually shift from tropical rainforest to drier savannah-like landscapes. Estimates cited in the debate suggest that the tipping point could lie at around 20% to 25% of the forest’s original area destroyed, although the precise threshold remains uncertain.
Political change could reverse progress
The environmental stakes are closely linked to Brazil’s political direction. During the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, from 2019 to 2022, deforestation accelerated amid pressure from agricultural interests and criticism of environmental enforcement. After Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office, deforestation declined, with one early measure showing a 34% drop in the first six months of his presidency.
Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s son and the far-right candidate in the election described in the source, is presented as a potential continuation of his father’s political approach. Environmental campaigners fear that a new administration aligned with agribusiness interests could weaken enforcement agencies and ease restrictions on activities affecting the rainforest.
Cattle ranching is one of the principal drivers of deforestation. Large areas of forest have been cleared to create pasture, despite the relatively poor soils that often remain once the rainforest’s dense vegetation has been removed. The destruction also threatens the region’s biodiversity, including its insects, birds and mammals.
The consequences are visible along roads such as BR-317 in the western state of Acre, where areas once covered by dense forest have been replaced by pasture and large ranches.
Beef production and mining add to pressure
The expansion of cattle ranching has drawn scrutiny towards major meat producers, including JBS, the world’s largest meat-processing company. Environmental groups and US lawmakers have accused the company of failing to adequately address links between its supply chains and deforestation in Brazil. JBS has denied the allegations.
A 2023 investigation led by US Senator Ron Wyden raised concerns about cattle supply chains and their potential contribution to Amazon destruction. Human Rights Watch also reported in 2025 that JBS may have exported beef sourced from illegal ranches.
The issue has also reached Washington. Joesley Batista, one of JBS’s principal owners, met US President Donald Trump at the White House in August, reportedly lobbying for lower US tariffs on Brazilian beef. Environmental campaigners fear that commercial interests could take precedence over forest protection.
Cattle production is not the only source of pressure. Rising gold prices have encouraged mining operations in the Amazon, including illegal mining by small-scale prospectors known as garimpeiros. Growing global demand for soybeans is also contributing to land clearance.
Environmental enforcement under threat
Brazil’s environmental protection agency, IBAMA, has played a central role in combating illegal deforestation under Lula. Its agents conduct enforcement operations against activities that damage protected areas, sometimes facing armed resistance.
Environmentalists fear that a far-right government could weaken the agency’s authority and reduce its ability to enforce environmental laws. They are also concerned that a more conservative Congress could seek to change restrictions on industrial mining in Indigenous territories.
The risks extend to those defending the forest. Global Witness reported in 2022 that more than 1,700 environmental activists had been killed worldwide over the preceding decade, including 342 in Brazil. Indigenous communities have also faced violence linked to disputes over land and natural resources.
The killing of environmental activist Chico Mendes in 1988 remains a defining example of the dangers faced by those opposing forest destruction. Mendes, a rubber tapper who campaigned to protect the rainforest and the livelihoods of its traditional communities, was murdered amid conflict with ranching interests.
Climate concerns extend beyond Brazil
The future of the Amazon has implications far beyond South America. Large-scale forest loss would reduce the region’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, while fires and degradation could release additional greenhouse gases. Scientists warn that the combination could intensify global warming and trigger further ecological changes.
Christian Poirier, programme director at environmental organisation Amazon Watch, has described the political situation in Brazil as a climate emergency. The organisation has raised concerns about the relationship between the Trump administration and the Bolsonaro political movement.
Andrew Miller, Amazon Watch’s advocacy director, has also warned that climate change is receiving less attention in US political debate, despite the growing scale of the crisis.
For environmental campaigners, the central concern is whether Brazil will maintain the policies and enforcement mechanisms needed to slow deforestation. The outcome of the political struggle could shape the future of the Amazon — and influence the global fight against climate change.
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