Global warming has accelerated sharply since 2010, with the rate of temperature increase almost doubling compared with the preceding four decades, according to a new annual assessment by European and US scientists.
The Earth warmed by around 0.19C per decade between 1970 and 2010. Between 2010 and 2024, that rate increased to 0.36C per decade, raising concerns about the pace of climate change and its effects on ecosystems and human societies.
The findings, published in the journal BioScience, form part of an annual review of dozens of indicators tracking the state of the planet. The international research group, led by William Ripple, a forestry professor at Oregon State University, warned that the climate system was becoming increasingly unstable.
Of the 16 indicators assessed, 14 deteriorated, including measures of greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean acidification and the loss of glaciers, forests and Greenland’s ice. The melting of floating sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic has slowed somewhat in recent years, although researchers have suggested this may reflect temporary fluctuations rather than a lasting reversal.
Climate scientist Nicole van Maanen of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam said the measurements supported longstanding warnings about the worsening climate crisis. She cautioned that examining indicators individually could obscure the combined effects of extreme weather, such as heatwaves and droughts disrupting electricity supplies and leaving cooling systems unable to operate.
Scientists investigate the acceleration
Although the role of human greenhouse gas emissions in global warming is firmly established, scientists are still investigating why the rate of warming has increased so markedly since around 2010.
Frank Selten, a climate scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), said the recent acceleration was concerning because it exceeded what climate models had projected.
Satellite measurements have shown a growing imbalance between the solar energy absorbed by the Earth and the heat radiated back into space. The oceans have also absorbed unusually large amounts of heat over the past decade.
One possible explanation is that the planet has become less reflective, allowing it to absorb more solar energy. Research cited by the scientists suggests that some major cloud-forming regions, including areas in the tropics and mid-latitude storm tracks, have contracted, while areas with fewer clouds have expanded.
However, scientists have yet to establish whether these changes are a direct consequence of climate change or reflect temporary natural variability.
Another possible factor is cleaner air. Tighter controls on sulphur emissions from shipping have reduced the amount of sunlight-reflecting particles in the atmosphere. With fewer of these particles, more solar energy can reach the Earth’s surface, while greenhouse gases trap heat that would otherwise escape into space.
Renewable energy offers a positive sign
Despite the accelerating warming trend, scientists pointed to progress in the transition towards cleaner energy.
According to the assessment, fossil fuel consumption increased by 0.9 per cent last year, while energy use from solar and wind rose by 18 per cent. For the first time, wind, solar and hydropower together generated more electricity worldwide than coal.
The researchers described the shift as a significant milestone in the transition to clean energy, although they warned that the overall climate indicators continued to deteriorate.
The acceleration in warming highlights the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while scientists continue to investigate why recent temperature increases have outpaced earlier expectations.
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