The midterm elections will determine more than control of Congress. They will also offer a measure of how much influence the Democratic Party’s progressive wing holds as the party looks towards the 2028 presidential race.
One of the most closely watched contests is the Michigan Senate race, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is seeking election. His campaign has become a test case for the progressive movement, particularly because of his outspoken criticism of Israel. While some figures in the Democratic establishment, including Barack Obama, have backed progressive candidates, others fear that El-Sayed’s positions could alienate voters and help his Republican opponent secure a crucial seat.
The party’s centrists are also concerned about the wider political message of a progressive victory. They worry that activists could interpret a strong result for El-Sayed and other left-wing candidates as evidence that left-wing populism can win support even in politically competitive states.
Former House speaker Nancy Pelosi, 86, addressed the issue on a podcast, saying: “We’ll see if this new figure from Michigan gets elected to Congress.” She also criticised what she described as the candidates’ “wrong” positions on Israel, referring to El-Sayed and New York politician Zohran Mamdani. Pelosi argued that a victory in Michigan would not necessarily change the Democratic Party’s broader standing.
The election on 3 November will nevertheless provide an indication of how voters respond to policies such as higher taxes on billionaires and universal access to health insurance. It will also test whether progressive candidates can appeal beyond the party’s activist base to moderate and Republican-leaning voters. The outcome could have implications for several closely contested districts that will help determine control of Congress.
Progressive candidates across key states
Several progressive candidates are entering election day with competitive campaigns. In Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is running for the Senate. Bob Brooks, a former firefighter and union activist, is contesting Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, while Manny Rutinel, a former animal-rights activist, is running in Colorado’s 8th District. Rutinel attracted attention after posting a video of himself eating a meat taco to demonstrate that he had moved away from veganism.
Other races remain closely contested. In Maine, Troy Jackson replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic Senate candidate following a series of scandals and is facing Republican Senator Susan Collins. In Montana, firefighter and smokejumper Sam Forstag is challenging the Republican incumbent in the state’s 1st District. Randy Villegas is running against Republican Congressman David Valadao in California’s Central Valley, while William Lawrence, co-founder of the environmental group Sunrise Movement, is campaigning in Michigan’s 7th District.
Other progressive candidates are trailing their Republican opponents. In Florida, Democratic socialist Angie Nixon is facing criticism after saying she had heard that Cuba was a dictatorship but could not personally confirm it because she had never visited the country — a remark that may have damaged her standing with Cuban-American voters. Matt Dunlap is running in rural Maine’s 2nd District against a moderate Republican, while Justin Pearson, who was expelled from the Tennessee House of Representatives after taking part in a protest against gun violence, is seeking election in Memphis.
AOC takes a leading role in the progressive campaign
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the movement’s most visible campaigners. Having assumed a prominent role on the Democratic left after Bernie Sanders, the New York congresswoman has been drawing crowds in unexpected places and campaigning for progressive candidates in competitive districts.
Her campaign stops have included Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Florida, although not every candidate has embraced her support. Forstag, for example, removed her endorsement from his campaign website.
Ocasio-Cortez’s profile has also attracted attention beyond the Democratic Party. Donald Trump recently said: “I don’t mind AOC too much, I don’t know why.” Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for the conservative youth organisation Turning Point USA, described Ocasio-Cortez and Mamdani as politicians with “terrible policies and ideas”, but acknowledged that they were among the progressive left’s most prominent emerging political figures.
Ocasio-Cortez has described an El-Sayed victory as crucial to the progressive movement’s “generational project”. Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has gone further, predicting that if El-Sayed wins in Michigan, Ocasio-Cortez will become the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028.
The midterms will not settle the party’s presidential succession. But the results will offer an important indication of the progressive wing’s influence — and of how far its candidates can extend their appeal beyond the Democratic base.
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