The prospect of losing control of at least one chamber of Congress is raising questions about the future of Donald Trump’s administration and the Republican Party. While Democrats are preparing for a possible return to power, divisions over the party’s direction and its 2028 presidential candidate are also coming into focus.
The US midterm elections could significantly reshape the balance of power in Washington over the next two years. Polls point to Republicans losing their majority in the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains uncertain.
A Republican defeat would have consequences beyond Congress, potentially triggering changes within Trump’s administration and intensifying competition over the party’s future leadership.
Trump has already signalled how he would respond to a loss of congressional control. In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, he said he could become “Mr. Veto”, referring to the presidential powers he would retain even if Democrats take control of Congress. He also indicated that he would be prepared to work with Hakeem Jeffries, who could become the next House speaker.
Hegseth and Rubio face questions over their futures
A Republican setback could put several senior administration officials under pressure, particularly Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, whose support for using military force against Iran has drawn attention.
Two potential replacements have emerged, according to the Italian newspaper La Stampa: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose term ends in January, and former CIA director and secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is also at the centre of speculation about the administration’s future. One scenario suggests he could leave his post in January to prepare for a potential 2028 presidential campaign.
An administration insider told La Stampa that the White House would favour Rubio as a future presidential candidate. However, people close to the secretary of state reportedly believe he has no immediate plans to leave his position.
Trump’s grip on Republicans faces a test
The midterm results could also expose divisions between Trump’s MAGA movement and the traditional Republican establishment.
The president’s influence over Republican primaries remains considerable. A September study cited in the report found that 96 per cent of candidates endorsed by Trump had won their party primaries. The defeat of Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie, who lost his seat after facing a Trump-backed challenger, was cited as an example of the pressure facing Republicans who break with the president.
However, if Trump’s campaigning fails to prevent Republican losses, more lawmakers could begin distancing themselves from him. House Speaker Mike Johnson and other prominent Trump allies could also face questions about their political futures.
The bigger challenge for the MAGA movement would be finding a candidate capable of uniting its supporters ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Democrats face a choice between investigations and reform
For Democrats, a return to power would bring its own challenges. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s position and Jeffries’ potential rise to the speakership would be central to the party’s leadership debate.
Jeffries has already outlined priorities for a Democratic-controlled House, including restoring healthcare funding, addressing the cost of living and seeking to bring US involvement in the Iran conflict back within the limits of congressional authorisation.
Another major question is whether Democrats would focus on investigations into the Trump administration, potentially including impeachment proceedings, or prioritise legislative reforms.
An NBC poll cited by La Stampa found that 52 per cent of Americans wanted Democrats to lead Congress. However, analysts caution that opposition to Trump and dissatisfaction with economic conditions do not necessarily amount to broad support for the Democratic Party.
Democrats have largely campaigned on the cost of living and economic difficulties, without presenting a clearly defined national programme. One Democratic strategist told La Stampa that the party still lacked a coherent vision for the country.
Progressive Democrats seek greater influence
The midterms could also reshape the ideological balance within the Democratic Party, particularly between its moderate wing and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).
Around 10 congressional candidates have received DSA endorsements, including several with strong electoral prospects. Among them are Melat Kiros, Donavan McKinney, Claire Valdez, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Chris Rabb.
A stronger showing would increase the influence of progressives already represented in Congress by figures such as Rashida Tlaib and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s political rise has also given the movement greater visibility.
At the Senate level, progressive candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Angie Nixon in Florida could further strengthen the movement, alongside independent Senator Bernie Sanders.
The outcome could make it harder for moderate Democrats to dismiss progressive proposals as politically unachievable. A strong performance by the left wing could also elevate Ocasio-Cortez as a potential contender in the 2028 presidential race.
With two years remaining before the next presidential election, the midterms are therefore set to determine not only who controls Congress, but also the political direction of both parties.
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