With Venice, Telluride and Toronto now wrapped, the first major stretch of the 2026 festival circuit has provided a clearer picture of which films are gaining momentum ahead of the Oscars.
Two major studio releases, “Project Hail Mary” and “The Odyssey,” remain among the leading Best Picture contenders and are also expected to compete across technical categories including cinematography, production design, editing and sound. But the festival circuit has also elevated several specialty and international films, reshaping the awards landscape.
‘La Bola Negra’ emerges as a major contender
Netflix’s “La Bola Negra,” which won the Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award, has made one of the strongest moves of the season. The Spanish film, directed by Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, is now viewed as a leading Best Picture contender as well as a strong candidate in the Best International Feature category.
The TIFF results also boosted “Being Heumann” and “I Play Rocky,” which finished behind “La Bola Negra,” while the international People’s Choice Award went to the British production “Elsinore.”
Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine” also strengthened its position after receiving strong responses at both Venice and Telluride. John Malkovich won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor in Venice, while the film’s 1970s Easter Island setting could give it opportunities in several craft categories. Its screenplay is also expected to remain part of the awards conversation.
Mike Leigh’s “Tender Loving Care,” meanwhile, has generated strong support at Telluride. The film could put Leigh into contention for Best Original Screenplay, while lead actress Kate O’Flynn is also attracting attention.
Acting races remain crowded
Several performances received a boost from the fall festivals. “The Debut,” directed by Jesse Eisenberg and starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, continues to generate awards interest, particularly for Moore.
“Elsinore” has also emerged as an acting contender, with Andrew Scott drawing attention for his portrayal of a dying actor performing Hamlet as his final role.
John Turturro is another name gaining momentum after “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” impressed audiences at Telluride. The Sony Pictures Classics release could provide the veteran actor with a long-awaited first Oscar nomination.
International field remains wide open
“La Bola Negra” currently has strong momentum in the Best International Feature race, but several other films remain in contention.
South Korea’s “Possible Love,” directed by Lee Chang-dong and distributed by Netflix, received the Grand Jury Prize at Venice and has emerged as a serious contender. Austria’s “Rose” and France’s “Minotaur” also gained momentum at Telluride.
By contrast, some Cannes favorites have lost ground during the fall festival season. Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord,” Romania’s submission, and Poland’s “Fatherland,” directed by Paweł Pawlikowski and featuring Sandra Hüller, have seen their awards buzz soften in recent months.
Documentaries add another layer
The documentary field is also beginning to take shape. “Everest: The Other Side,” from Oscar-winning directors Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin, and “You Can See Everything,” from Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, are among the festival documentaries generating attention.
Alex Gibney’s four-hour “Musk,” which premiered at Venice and Toronto, could also enter the race. The film examines billionaire Elon Musk and marks another potential awards run for the Oscar-winning documentary filmmaker.
Another closely watched title is “NAZA,” which premiered at Venice and won the Special Jury Prize. Directed by Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, the film features testimonies from Israeli soldiers about alleged war crimes during the Gaza war. It already has a distribution plan and is considered a potential documentary nominee.
With the fall festival circuit complete, the Oscar picture is becoming more defined, but several major races remain fluid. The next stage will depend on theatrical releases, critics’ groups, guild awards and the campaigns that studios mount as the Academy voting period approaches.
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