Single-family homes reach a median price of $2 million as expectations surrounding OpenAI and Anthropic fuel a property frenzy. One buyer’s $4.8 million all-cash offer was not enough to secure a home.
A house in San Francisco’s Noe Valley neighbourhood was listed for $3.6 million. One buyer offered $4.8 million — $1.2 million above the asking price — entirely in cash, without waiting for mortgage approval.
It was not enough.
“The winning offer was around $5.4 million to $5.5 million,” says Greta Tengattini, an Italian real estate agent at Mosaik Real Estate. The successful buyer also offered to close the deal in about a week, paying nearly 50% above the asking price.
In a city home to OpenAI and Anthropic, having several million dollars available is no longer a guarantee of securing the property you want.
Property prices break records
The latest gold rush driven by artificial intelligence is intensifying a long-standing problem in San Francisco: limited housing supply, restrictions and difficulties surrounding new construction, and renewed demand as employees return to offices after the pandemic.
The enormous wealth generated by the AI industry is adding further pressure to an already imbalanced market. As investors bet on the future of AI models, some of that expected wealth is finding its way into the property market, pushing buyers to compete for houses with gardens, additional rooms and space to accommodate growing families.
Data from InfoSparks, provided by Tengattini, shows that the median sale price of single-family homes in San Francisco County reached $2 million in September 2026, an annual increase of 23.1%.
For condominiums, the median price stood at $1.275 million, up 15.9% over the same period.
The figures are based on a three-month rolling period and reflect completed transactions, meaning they are also influenced by the types of properties sold. They do not mean that every home has appreciated by 23%. Nevertheless, they illustrate how much more expensive it has become to enter an already costly market.
IPO expectations fuel the frenzy
Two potential financial events could further transform the fortunes of the local property market.
According to Reuters, Anthropic is targeting a valuation of $2 trillion for a potential stock market debut. OpenAI, meanwhile, has been the subject of fundraising discussions that could push its valuation above $1 trillion, according to Reuters Breakingviews.
These remain targets and expectations rather than realised market capitalisations. But for employees who hold equity in the companies, the prospect of turning their shares into spendable wealth is already influencing financial decisions.
The enormous pool of AI wealth
The entire anticipated fortune does not need to flow into real estate to alter the market. Even a small proportion could make a difference.
In July, Redfin estimated that current and former employees of OpenAI could hold approximately $135 billion in net equity wealth, while those associated with Anthropic could hold $63 billion. The estimates were based on assumptions about company valuations, employee ownership stakes and taxes.
Combined, that theoretical wealth would be enough to purchase 29% of the value of homes across the San Francisco metropolitan area.
The calculation is hypothetical, not a forecast of actual property purchases. It nevertheless illustrates the scale of the potential wealth involved compared with the housing market into which it could flow.
A new generation of millionaires
A new generation of millionaires is preparing to turn shares and compensation packages into property assets. Some of the pressure is already visible, even before any stock market listings take place.
Redfin has pointed to high salaries and signing bonuses as factors supporting housing demand. In this sense, the property market may be responding to Wall Street expectations before those expectations translate into realised fortunes.
California could benefit from increased consumption and investment, but the eventual impact will depend on company valuations, employees’ ability to sell their shares and how they choose to use their wealth.
From Italy to San Francisco’s property market
Tengattini has a front-row seat to these changes through her work with buyers. Originally from Paratico, on the shores of Lake Iseo in northern Italy, she studied legal sciences before pursuing environmental economics and sustainability.
A scholarship took her to Columbia University in New York, where she focused on behavioural analysis. She later completed a master’s degree in business analytics in San Francisco and worked as an analyst before moving into real estate.
Her background in data, contracts and human behaviour has become particularly valuable in a market where the advertised price can be little more than the starting point for negotiations.
Winning offers can exceed asking prices by 20-30%
“Don’t look at the listing price; look at the homes that have actually sold,” is Tengattini’s advice to prospective buyers.
She recommends comparing similar properties and recent transactions to understand what homes in a particular neighbourhood are really selling for.
In her experience, bidding wars for single-family homes can push final prices 20-30% above asking prices. This is different from the annual rise in median prices: the former measures the gap between a property’s advertised price and the accepted offer, while the latter tracks changes in the market’s overall sales figures.
The neighbourhoods attracting buyers
Noe Valley, Bernal Heights and Glen Park are among the neighbourhoods where Tengattini sees particularly intense competition for houses.
These are not necessarily the city’s most expensive areas. Even compared with prestigious neighbourhoods such as Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights, bidding can be more aggressive in locations where more buyers are competing for similar properties.
For condominiums, she highlights Mission Bay and South Beach, which attract buyers because of their proximity to technology offices.
Why cash buyers have an advantage
Mortgages remain an option, but financing can put buyers at a competitive disadvantage.
Sellers consider not only the amount offered but also the certainty and speed of the transaction. Buyers with readily available cash can often promise a faster closing than those who must wait for financing approval.
Being able to afford the monthly repayments is therefore not always enough. Buyers must also compete with those who can pay immediately.
Preparation is essential, Tengattini says. Buyers should establish their budget in advance, understand the neighbourhood they are targeting and, if they need a mortgage, secure pre-approval before making an offer.
The agent must also review comparable sales, assess the available documentation and evaluate competing bids before advising on an offer.
“Trust is everything,” she says.
The decision-making window is shrinking just as the sums involved continue to rise.
Rental prices are climbing too
The pressure extends beyond homeownership into the rental market.
Tengattini describes properties initially offered at $3,000 a month that have ultimately been rented for $4,000 because of competition among prospective tenants.
In the most sought-after areas, she cites monthly rents of around $6,500-$7,000 for apartments with two bedrooms and two bathrooms, depending on the property’s condition.
These are examples from her own work rather than citywide averages, but they illustrate the dilemma facing newcomers. Renting while getting to know San Francisco can already be expensive; buying means competing against people with millions of dollars at their disposal.
The cost of the AI boom
The AI boom is reshaping San Francisco’s property market, but its benefits are unlikely to be distributed evenly.
Those who own shares in technology companies or already hold property may see their wealth increase, while people relying on salaries face housing costs that are rising faster than their ability to keep up.
If financial expectations around AI companies weaken, property demand could also cool. For now, however, in the capital of artificial intelligence, the future is being priced in advance — and the bill is already arriving for anyone looking for a home.
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