Europe faces the challenge of replacing US support for Ukraine, from Patriot air defence systems to financial assistance, as relations between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky deteriorate further.
The first question confronting European capitals is whether the latest public rupture between Trump and Zelensky is truly irreversible. Their relationship has long been fraught, with repeated clashes exposing a fundamental incompatibility: Trump demands concessions that Zelensky cannot make, while the Ukrainian president can only request, rather than demand, support that the American leader could provide but has chosen not to.
Yet the experience of recent years suggests caution before declaring the relationship beyond repair. The two leaders first spoke on 25 July 2019, shortly after Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine.
Trump had been in the White House for three years and was already seeking to undermine his potential rival in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden. During a phone call, he pressed the inexperienced Ukrainian leader to open an investigation into Biden’s son, Hunter, who was then serving on the board of Ukrainian gas company Burisma. Trump threatened to withhold $250 million in military aid that Ukraine was expecting.
Trump invited Zelensky to the White House on 26 September 2019. The controversy ultimately led to no criminal charges against Hunter Biden, while the Pentagon proceeded with the delivery of military assistance to Ukraine. Some believe the episode marked the beginning of Trump’s hostility towards Zelensky.
After returning to the White House, Trump quickly diminished the Ukrainian president’s standing while restoring Russian President Vladimir Putin’s place in his diplomatic calculations.
From the Oval Office confrontation to a new rupture
The confrontation of 28 February 2025 remains a defining moment in the relationship. During the meeting in the Oval Office, Zelensky was publicly berated by Trump and Vice President JD Vance.
Further hostile statements followed, with one notable exception: a private conversation between the two leaders on 26 April 2025, during the funeral of Pope Francis at St Peter’s Basilica. The encounter briefly suggested a degree of personal and political understanding, but that moment of apparent closeness proved short-lived.
Trump is now calling for Zelensky to resign, has lifted sanctions on Russian oil, and has threatened to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Starlink satellite system. He has also refused not only to sell Patriot missiles to Kyiv but to allow Ukrainian factories to manufacture the systems themselves.
The dispute cannot be explained solely by Trump’s lingering resentment over the Hunter Biden affair. The upcoming US midterm elections on 3 November are another important factor.
Trump has struck what has been described as a diesel deal with Putin in an effort to bring fuel prices under control. The concessions reportedly offered to the Kremlin, however, are substantial. Some observers, including Polish diplomats, believe Trump could reconsider his position after the elections, although that remains uncertain.
There is also a longer-term strategic dimension. The White House is working towards a potential three-way agreement involving Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin, aimed at reshaping the global geopolitical balance.
Europe’s challenge: replacing American support
The second question is what Europe can do to fill the gap left by Washington.
Speaking in Brussels last Friday, Zelensky outlined three urgent requirements: €70 billion to keep the Ukrainian state functioning in 2027; 300 Patriot missiles to protect cities and help the country get through the winter; and access to €300 billion in frozen Russian financial assets held in European banks.
Each presents a significant challenge.
The European Union has already allocated €90 billion intended to cover Ukraine’s public financing needs for 2026 and 2027. Finding another €70 billion in the short term will be difficult, particularly as EU governments are locked in disputes over the bloc’s budget and Spain, France and Italy approach elections.
The European Commission could turn to additional borrowing, as it has done for the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) rearmament programme. However, discussions on how to secure the additional funding have yet to begin in earnest.
Non-EU partners could also contribute. Norway, for example, has already announced €8 billion in support for Ukraine in 2027.
Meanwhile, eastern European countries and Germany have pressed the European Commission to identify a legal mechanism for unlocking frozen Russian assets. Reaching an agreement is likely to take time.
The struggle to secure Patriot missiles
The supply of Patriot air defence systems presents another obstacle. Attention has focused on Spain and, in particular, Greece, which has around 200 of the systems. Many are nearing the end of their 23-year service life, complicating efforts to redirect them to Ukraine.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has resisted pressure from Zelensky, senior EU officials and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to provide additional systems.
Athens is seeking security guarantees in return, pointing to its persistent tensions with neighbouring Turkey.
For Europe, the challenge is no longer simply how to sustain Ukraine’s defence, but whether the continent can mobilise sufficient financial resources, military equipment and political unity to compensate for a possible withdrawal of American support.
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