The Republican vice-president’s prospects have weakened following the midterm setbacks, opening the door for potential rivals including Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz. Democrats, meanwhile, are weighing a crowded field led by Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The fallout from the US midterm elections has reshaped early calculations for the 2028 presidential race, casting doubt on JD Vance’s position as the Republican frontrunner and encouraging other potential candidates to consider a bid for the White House.
Several US media outlets have described Vance’s prospects as declining, with some questioning whether he can recover from the Republican defeat. The vice-president drew attention after blaming the party’s midterm losses partly on the war in Iran and calling for a reassessment of US relations with Israel.
Vance has yet to announce whether he intends to run in 2028. Before the midterms, he appeared to be the clear favourite for the Republican nomination, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio repeatedly ruling out a challenge against his former Senate colleague. The political landscape has since changed.
Republican field begins to widen
Among the potential challengers is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who could make a second attempt at the Republican nomination after his unsuccessful 2024 campaign. He has reportedly re-engaged his former pollster and begun signalling the need for a fresh start within the party.
Senator Ted Cruz, who competed against Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries and was among the last candidates to withdraw, is also considering another run. New Jersey’s former governor Chris Christie has openly acknowledged that he is weighing his options, despite two previous unsuccessful attempts to secure the nomination.
Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as White House press secretary during Trump’s first administration, is also being mentioned as a possible contender.
Rubio remains one of the biggest question marks. Although he has said he does not intend to run, several figures in the White House are reportedly encouraging him to reconsider. Former White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, who shares Rubio’s Florida roots, could also play a role in a potential campaign now that she is no longer bound by her official responsibilities.
Democrats weigh a crowded field
The Democratic field is also beginning to take shape, with Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff emerging as one of the party’s most talked-about potential candidates. Approaching 40, Ossoff is seen as an appealing figure who combines Southern roots, strong communication skills and opposition to Trump without being closely identified with the party’s progressive wing.
However, he said two months ago that his priority was serving Georgia rather than pursuing the presidency.
Former Vice-President Kamala Harris is another possible contender. Her active role in the midterm campaign has signalled a renewed commitment to national politics, although questions remain over her ability to broaden her appeal after losing the 2024 election.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is also attracting attention following gains by progressive candidates in the midterms. The 38-year-old New York politician has made little effort to conceal her ambitions and has suggested that political opportunities should be seized when they arise. A possible Senate race in New York in 2028 could also be an option, depending on whether incumbent Chuck Schumer seeks to retain his seat.
Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA analyst with a more moderate profile, is another potential candidate.
Newsom and Buttigieg among other names
California Governor Gavin Newsom is widely expected to seek the nomination. His recent book has added to speculation about his presidential ambitions, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is viewed by some Democrats as one of the party’s strongest potential candidates.
Buttigieg has already tested his presidential appeal, winning the Iowa caucuses in 2020. However, his limited support among Black voters remains a challenge.
Other possible contenders include Senator Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Maryland Governor Wes Moore.
With several potential candidates yet to make their intentions clear, the race remains largely speculative. But the midterm results have already altered the political landscape, setting the stage for an increasingly competitive contest on both sides of the aisle.
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